10 August 2026

12 new episodes (9.7 hours listening) published by the 38 podcasts on the list. 2 highlight clips below (6 mins total).

Investment 10 August 2026 · 2 clips

Forward Guidance

Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro

Episode

The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale

Founder of 42 Macro, a systematic macro research firm whose signals he says thousands of families and hundreds of institutions subscribe to. He built models and risk overlays on Wall Street for large buy-side institutions before starting the firm, and names the current US Treasury Secretary as a former client.

Hosted by

Felix Jauvin

12 August 2026 · 46m 09s · 2 clips below

1 of 2 prediction

Darius Dale puts fair value on the 10-year Treasury at 5.8%, reached by adding nothing to the model except a normal term premium.

Term premium sits near 78 basis points against a pre-crisis mean of 188, and closing that gap alone does the whole job. He frames the number as the bill for a Fed that holds while the neutral rate rises and then turns dovish once the task forces report, with the bond market paying for both.

1m 56s · from 18:34
My observations
- Mean reversion to a pre-2008 term premium assumes the pre-2008 regime is the right comparison. Two decades of central bank balance sheet policy is the obvious argument against, and he does not engage it.
- Dale dates the dovish surprise to the next three to eight months on the task force findings, which makes this checkable rather than perpetual. A 10-year still well under 5% by mid-2027 says the thesis missed, and that is a note a board can put in the file now.
- Both outcomes flatter him: tighter policy vindicates the r-star call, easier policy vindicates the term premium call. Neither path costs anything.
2 of 2 contrarian

Darius Dale argues that Kevin Warsh withholding forward guidance narrows the range of economic outcomes, against a market that read the same press conference as a disaster.

Guidance in the post-crisis era only ever pushed rates down, taking term premium to minus 167 basis points at the COVID trough against a pre-crisis mean of plus 188. On his account that pulled capital out of the real economy and into buybacks and leverage, so letting the curve price the economy again should thin the tails.

4m 00s · from 33:11
My observations
- Whoever holds the duration pays for this first and collects later, if at all, which puts a board's bond allocation on the paying side of the experiment. Dale treats a jumpier rate curve as the price of a normal distribution rather than as damage.
- Dale reaches for Greenspan, a Fed that let markets do half the work of setting policy. That period also produced two asset bubbles, which weakens the claim that less guidance means fewer boom-bust cycles.
- Nothing here is testable inside a year. A narrower distribution of outcomes is only visible in hindsight, which makes this a frame for reading Warsh rather than a call.

10 August 2026

Investment 10 August 2026 · 2 clips

Darius Dale puts fair value on the 10-year Treasury at 5.8%, reached by adding nothing to the model except a normal term premium.

Darius Dale argues that Kevin Warsh withholding forward guidance narrows the range of economic outcomes, against a market that read the same press conference as a disaster.