12 October 2026
143 new episodes (135 hours listening) published by the 50 podcasts on the list. 77 highlight clips below (246 mins total).
Investment 12 October 2026 · 77 clips
Excess Returns
Chris Davis and Robert HagstromDavis Funds; EquityCompass
Chris Davis is chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Funds, with his own money invested in the funds beside his clients'. Robert Hagstrom is CIO of EquityCompass, runs its Global Leaders Portfolio and wrote The Warren Buffett Way; he did his practical training with Bill Miller.
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1 of 3 framework
Chris Davis says every client would choose five years of 13% a year while the market makes 15% over losing 1% a year while it loses 2%, and every investment adviser would choose the opposite.
Advisers are judged against the index, so beating a falling market reads as success and trailing a rising one as failure, whatever happens to the client's wealth. Davis concludes that a lot of advisers manage relative performance while neglecting absolute risk, a system he calls very dangerous, and an index that has in a way become a large momentum fund looks to him a poor automatic buy at the end of a bull market.
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2 of 3 contrarian
Chris Davis's self-described tinfoil-hat theory is that venture investors keep companies private for longer so they can sell into index funds, buyers that take about half of any listed company at any price.
Late-1990s venture funds saw IPO paper gains vanish when lock-ups ended and active managers found no business underneath; a passive buyer does no such analysis, and venture holders now own 80% to 90% of the companies concerned. Davis calls indexing a momentum multiplier and warns that a feedback system's collapse comes at an unpredictable time, worse the longer it runs.
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3 of 3 contrarian
Chris Davis argues that if AI settles into four or five cloud providers with low switching costs by 2028 or 2029, its value will flow to users, as railroads' did, leaving the builders without pricing power.
Amazon's retail arm and Facebook won because each gain in size widened the lead, and Davis says it is too early to tell whether AI has that loop; he calls the answer a $3.5 trillion question. Railroads and electricity are his precedents for the users rather than the builders keeping the gain, and he recalls that the internet's surefire winners were Yahoo, AOL and Cisco.
The Real Eisman Playbook
Q3 2026 Market Recap: Energy Up, Utilities Crushed, and Software Flipped | The Weekly Wrap
A solo episode: Steve Eisman's weekly market wrap, recorded on 8 October 2026 for the week ending 9 October.
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current issue
Steve Eisman counts over 50% of this year's corporate bond issuance as AI-related, against about 15% of corporate bonds outstanding, leaving the bond side of a 60/40 portfolio less of a diversifier from AI than it looks.
On the equity side he adds up InfoTech at 40% of the S&P 500, Google and Amazon, the power and data-centre suppliers, and the banks and alternative managers financing the build-out, and reaches well north of 65%. Only staples and healthcare, about 14% of the index, sit clear of AI.
Capital Allocators
Stephen McLennanOntario Teachers' Pension Plan
Co-Chief Investment Officer of Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, a $300 billion fund covering 346,000 active and retired teachers, where he runs asset allocation and the regional offices. He joined in 2003 on the credit desk and has since worked across natural resources, infrastructure and Total Fund Management, sharing the CIO seat with Gillian Brown since 2024.
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framework
Stephen McLennan, co-CIO of Ontario Teachers', argues a board should state its risk appetite directly instead of setting a reference portfolio, because in his observation investment teams gravitate to its weights.
OTPP's board set the change off around 2015 or 2016 by asking why it took responsibility for an asset mix that management had recommended, which led to much more flexible asset-mix bands. His illustration is a 60% equity, 40% fixed income reference: teams grow reluctant to move far from it, and in 2020 and 2021 that meant a lot of fixed income held for reasons that had weakened.
In Conversation with Julie Segal
Robert KoenigsbergerGramercy
Founder of Gramercy, which he started in 1998, the year Russia devalued its currency. He began in emerging markets during the less developed country debt crisis and counts almost 40 years in the asset class.
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framework
Robert Koenigsberger called investors sitting on cash in March 2020 and was told the money could move after the July or October board meeting, by which time the V-shaped recovery had happened.
He and Mohamed El-Erian had warned in late 2019 of a coming dislocation in emerging market debt, noting that recoveries had run 30% to 50% within 12 to 24 months, 13 times in 30 years. The experience pushed Gramercy towards multi-asset mandates in which the client approves the process once.
Top Traders Unplugged
Alex EdmansLondon Business School
Alex Edmans is professor of finance at London Business School and the author of Grow the Pie, a Financial Times book of the year, and May Contain Lies. He worked at Morgan Stanley before his PhD at MIT, and his study of World Cup results and stock markets was published 20 years ago.
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framework
Alex Edmans locates the long-horizon investor's edge in being able to wait, and points to a Cambridge college that borrowed about £10 million in 2009 to buy equities that roughly tripled.
Professionals who study a sector every day and meet its management already price what an amateur knows. What they cannot do is buy in January 2009 and sit through a further fall, because their clients can pull their money; a college funding teaching and research for 30 to 40 years has no such clients, and its debt grew to about £15 million while the stake reached about £30 million.
The Compound and Friends
Jurrien TimmerFidelity Investments
Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments since 2005, in the firm's global asset allocation group, after earlier roles there as a technical research analyst and portfolio manager of the Fidelity Global Strategies Fund. He has 41 years in the business, 31 of them at Fidelity, where Ned Johnson hired him into the chart room in 1995.
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1 of 4 framework
The Compound and Friends counts the five largest S&P 500 stocks as now worth as much as the bottom 434, against the bottom 282 in July 2018.
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity adds that the top 50 are 60% of the index and only about 38% of members beat it in a bull market up about 125%, close to 1999 and 1973. He separates those endings from today on the leaders' multiple: the top 50 traded at twice the rest in 1973 and went from 20 to 40 times after 1998, and he sees no such extreme now.
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2 of 4 current issue
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says hyperscalers are borrowing about half a trillion dollars this year, with Fidelity's analysis suggesting another half trillion next year, a reverse crowding out in which corporate debt competes with the Treasury for buyers.
Companies have also turned net issuers of equity as buybacks give way to capex and new listings, and on Fed flow-of-funds data about $3.6 trillion of new corporate capital has been raised in 12 months and absorbed so far. The tech sector's earnings multiple has slipped from about 21 to 20 since the April 2025 melt-up began, and a Paramount deal drew about $150 billion of orders for roughly $52 billion.
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3 of 4 current issue
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity puts the US jobs breakeven at only about 30,000 a month, against 70,000 to 100,000 before, because immigration has stopped and baby boomers are leaving the workforce.
Against that bar recent soft payroll numbers are not weak, and the AI job losses some 2024 forecasts set for 2026 or 2027 have not appeared. Timmer says the fears behind the Fed's three insurance cuts of 2025 proved a false alarm once Iran pushed inflation back up, and reads the current rises as the Fed taking those cuts back, not a new tightening cycle.
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4 of 4 current issue
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer puts semiconductor earnings up 178% on a year ago, on an index with a clear 40-month earnings cycle that is near the point where it should start to turn down.
Suppliers to the build-out cannot keep up with demand, so he is less worried about the earnings, and the hosts put backlogs at five years. He worries more about capital: hyperscalers that used to return about 90 cents of each earnings dollar, mostly through buybacks, now spend their cash flow on capex with unknown returns.
The Real Eisman Playbook
Krishna GuhaEvercore
Krishna Guha is Evercore's Fed watcher, the analyst Steve Eisman says he reads every day or two.
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1 of 3 framework
Krishna Guha of Evercore argues a 10-year yield above 5% is already straining the non-AI economy, with housing frozen at 7% mortgages, while AI investment itself may hold until long rates reach something like 6%.
A project expected to return many times its cost barely notices whether it borrows at 6% or 9%; a small business does. Consumer spending is being held up by equity gains at the top while wage growth lags costs, so the stock market, more than AI capex, is where he would watch for higher yields to bite.
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2 of 3 current issue
Scott Bessent's long-bond buybacks, a few billion dollars an operation in a market of about $40 trillion, failed to cap Treasury yields and may have lifted them by signalling strain, on Evercore's Krishna Guha's reading.
The August escalation, Guha thinks, was meant to give hedge funds shorting Treasuries some two-sided risk, and Bessent backed away once he saw he was on a losing trade. Eisman's alternative, looser bank liquidity rules, is being looked at by the administration and the Fed together, so banks hold fewer Fed reserves and potentially more government debt, though they may prefer bills to bonds.
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3 of 3 contrarian
Evercore's Krishna Guha agrees with Kevin Warsh that the Fed should commit to rate paths only in emergencies, but argues that dropping the broader explanation of its reaction function has helped long yields overshoot.
On his reading AI debt issuance, the war and oil drive the move in yields; what Warsh removed is the guardrail his three predecessors kept around such repricings. Markets overshoot, and he calls it deeply inefficient to leave them guessing how the Fed will weigh a coming decision.
Big Technology Podcast
Dylan Patel and Jordan NanosSemiAnalysis
Dylan Patel founded and runs SemiAnalysis, the research firm that coined the term neocloud and now tracks 323 GPU cloud providers. Jordan Nanos, of its technical staff, wrote ClusterMax 3.0, its ranking of those clouds on reliability, security and performance.
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current issue
SemiAnalysis counts $588 billion of off-balance-sheet backstops Nvidia has extended so neoclouds can borrow, reaching well beyond GPUs into construction and the memory supply chain.
Lenders want an investment-grade offtaker before they fund a neocloud, so Nvidia signs as that offtaker, then steps aside when a customer turns up wanting the capacity at a higher price and moves on to the next project. Nanos reads it as Nvidia building a broad customer base outside the three or four hyperscalers, and rejects the bubble-support reading, noting that the capacity Nvidia keeps for its own research is a small slice of its revenue.
Big Technology Podcast
Ranjan RoyMargins
Ranjan Roy of Margins is Big Technology's regular co-host for its weekly Friday news discussion and has worked on a trading floor.
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1 of 2 current issue
Reuters' leak of Anthropic's S-1 shows $4.6 billion of revenue in 2025 against $518 billion of compute and infrastructure spending planned over a decade, 80% of it non-cancellable.
Revenue grew from $400 million in 2024, and the hosts note that a run-rate climbing to the $10 billion reported at year end would net out near $4.6 billion. Big Technology reads the reported $42 billion net loss as an underlying loss around $8 billion plus $34 billion from an accounting treatment tied to the company's rise in value, and the leak omits first-half 2026 figures.
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2 of 2 current issue
Anthropic's leaked S-1 figures commit $111 billion to Alphabet, $110 billion to Amazon and $31.4 billion to Microsoft over a decade, the same companies whose cloud growth and share prices now lean on AI demand.
AWS grew about 17% a year before AI and now runs near 30%, and the hosts expect the hyperscalers to rescue Anthropic before letting it fail, though the damage might spread without a bankruptcy. The median S&P 500 stock sits 16% below its 52-week high with the index up about 13%, the worst breadth since the dot-com bubble, and Goldman Sachs attributes half of this year's earnings growth to AI investment.
a16z
Pat GelsingerPlayground Global
General partner at Playground Global and former chief executive of Intel, which he joined at 18 and where he was architect and design manager on the 486; he later ran VMware.
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prediction
Pat Gelsinger expects a run of defaults on AI data centre projects that cannot get power, after 10 to 15 years in which US energy capacity barely grew.
The US has added energy capacity at perhaps 4% a year over the last five years, while gas turbines carry lead times he puts at eight years and renewables depend heavily on Chinese supply chains. He names Oracle as an early indicator and expects buyers to start asking whether their power can underwrite the commitments made for racks and GPUs.
Alpha Exchange
Chris Hentemann400 Capital Management
Chris Hentemann founded 400 Capital Management in October 2008 with about $2.5 million, mostly his own money, and has built it to roughly $8 billion in asset-based and securitised credit. Before that he ran structured products at Bank of America, after starting at First Boston in 1990 and moving through Salomon Brothers.
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framework
400 Capital's Chris Hentemann is wary of financing data-centre shells, doubting their alternative use, and lends instead against turbines and power equipment that have secondary markets and buyers beyond any single project.
Much data-centre lending is in substance a loan to the tenant, a cash-rich technology company with little debt, and reading corporate credit of that kind is not where his firm's edge lies. 400 Capital wants to be made whole from the asset if the borrower fails, and office, where few expected 30% of space to go dark, is his warning on assuming a building outlives its tenant's purpose.
Merryn Talks Money
David GoodmanBloomberg
Team leader for Bloomberg's Markets Live, covering UK markets; he started his career in 2011 and 2012, during the eurozone debt crisis.
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current issue
Bloomberg's David Goodman and John Stepek put the French-German bond spread at 150 basis points, up from under 100 in mid-September and its widest since 2012, and Goodman sees no clear political trigger behind the move.
Earlier French scares had a trigger, a government falling or a budget failing; this time, in Goodman's account, the selling followed a change of mood, and it has spread to Italy, despite the market's warmer view of Rome, and even to the Belgian spread. He thinks markets can deal with one country's idiosyncratic risk; once the selling spreads beyond it, the problem becomes the European Central Bank's.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Masters in Business (Ritholtz)
Maria VassalouPictet
Head of the Pictet Research Institute, a team of PhD researchers working on geopolitics, macro and portfolio implementation for a firm managing nearly a trillion dollars. She was co-CIO at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, set up a quantitative strategies group at Soros and was a portfolio manager at SAC Capital, after teaching finance at Columbia from 1995 to 2006.
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1 of 2 framework
Pictet's Maria Vassalou argues US technological leadership works as collateral for US debt, and that losing it to China would unwind the post-Cold War arrangement under which the world funds American deficits.
The rest of the world shipped its surpluses to the US and took dollars, Treasuries and US equity returns in exchange, which obliged Washington to keep borrowing; under the Triffin dilemma that borrowing eventually erodes the issuer's credit and its privilege. A machine that turns innovation into growth reassures creditors they will be repaid, which is why she calls the contest with Beijing existential and expects it to outlast any change of administration.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
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2 of 2 explainer
Maria Vassalou says making the renminbi a reserve currency is not in China's interest, because the role would require it to run deficits and lift capital controls, ending its model as the world's surplus manufacturer.
If China lifted the controls a lot of money would leave, and trade settled in renminbi with BRICS and other emerging partners appeals to them only as far as China buys from them in return. A reserve issuer also has to supply safe assets: dollars can be parked in Treasuries at a yield, while renminbi holders have nothing comparable to buy.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Merryn Talks Money
Alex EdmansLondon Business School
Alex Edmans is Professor of Finance at London Business School and author of The Madness of Markets; he worked at Morgan Stanley in London and New York before a finance PhD at MIT.
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contrarian
Alex Edmans found that the 100 Best Companies to Work For in America beat their peers by 2.3% to 3.8% a year over 28 years, between 89% and 184% compounded.
He controls for recent performance to separate cause from correlation, and gives two reasons the market leaves it unpriced: a pie-splitting view that generous treatment of staff comes out of shareholders' share, and the difficulty of turning employee satisfaction into a spreadsheet input when a 5% sales beat goes straight in.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
MacroVoices
Brent JohnsonSantiago Capital
Founder of Santiago Capital, a registered investment adviser that structures portfolios for high-net-worth individuals and families and manages a private fund. He first set out his dollar milkshake call, the dollar index returning to its highs in a sovereign debt crisis, at the MacroVoices conference in 2019, and has 26 years in the business.
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explainer
Brent Johnson says the Fed could credit the Treasury with about $1 trillion in an afternoon by marking up the gold certificates that still value US gold at $42 an ounce.
The step needs the central bank to accept the marked-up paper, and an independent one could in principle refuse, which is why he treats revaluation and Fed-Treasury coordination as one argument. He does not expect it soon and frames it as an insurance policy the administration wants ready.
Hidden Forces
Jim BiancoBianco Research
Founder of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors, a shop of fewer than ten people that writes on bonds, the economy and inflation for professional investors. Here he explains why he has turned bullish on bonds for the first time in six years, after arguing they were overvalued.
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1 of 4 framework
Jim Bianco argues Treasury yields should match expected nominal growth, which he puts at 5% to 6% for the US, and notes every yield from the five-year to the 30-year has moved into that range for the first time in 20 years.
Japan once had zero rates with zero nominal growth and Venezuela rates over 100% with growth to match, his two examples. With rates below nominal growth, cheap money lets below-average investments earn positive carry, which he argues was part of the reason for the zombie companies and weak recovery of 2010 to 2015; bonds are no longer expensive on his reading, though not yet cheap.
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2 of 4 explainer
Jim Bianco traces stubborn 3% US inflation to goods prices, which fell 0.5% a year for 18 years after China joined the WTO and have risen 1.8% a year since COVID.
Services prices rose at least 2% a year throughout that period and are pushing the high 3s today, leaving no offset to flatter central bankers. His worry is a floor under inflation, and with real growth near 2.5% it puts US nominal GDP at about 5.5%.
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3 of 4 current issue
Jim Bianco puts US consumer prices up 31% since April 2020 against 26% for average hourly earnings, with asset owners covering the gap from their homes and portfolios.
Mark Zandi's estimate at Moody's, as Bianco cites it, has the top 20% of households making half of all US retail sales, the most concentrated on record. Bianco's reading is that this spending comes from awarded stock and rising house prices, so the headline economy now moves with asset markets more than with wages.
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4 of 4 explainer
Jim Bianco argues US job numbers that look weak, 29,000 in September and about 60,000 a month this year, are good ones, because the working-age population now grows by only about 30,000 people a month.
Below-replacement fertility, legal immigration near 600,000 a year and illegal immigration close to zero leave the 15-to-64 pool barely growing, and by 2030 more Americans will turn 65 than turn 15. Measured against that, a six-month average near 65,000 jobs, unemployment around 4.1% to 4.2% and four-week jobless claims of 198,000 describe a labour market doing well enough.
Top Traders Unplugged
Andrew Beer
A regular on Top Traders Unplugged's Systematic Investor series who runs a managed futures ETF. He graduated from Harvard Business School in 1994 and has started four asset management businesses, the current one run by seven people.
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1 of 3 explainer
Andrew Beer's figures show the diversifiers that rose in the dot-com crash failing in one or both of the next two equity bear markets, while the SG CTA Index rose in all three.
Bonds returned 30% around 2000-01, only held level in the GFC, then fell 15% to 20% with equities in 2022, and REITs went from up 49% to down 50%. Beer attributes the CTA record (26% in the first crisis, 11% in the second) to managers holding positions through big moves away from consensus, and reads it as structural.
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2 of 3 explainer
Andrew Beer puts the SG CTA Index's worst drawdown in 27 years at 16%, close to the US Aggregate bond index's 17%, while the average worst drawdown of its individual funds is closer to 25%.
Trend followers cut losing positions, so an 87% fall in commodities never sits in the book the way it sits in a long-only index. The comparison that hurt them was with bonds: the Aggregate's worst fall from 2000 to 2020 was under 4%, which made the strategy's routine 5% to 10% drawdowns look like failure.
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3 of 3 explainer
Andrew Beer puts the SG CTA Index's Sharpe ratio at 0.34 over roughly 27 years, close to the roughly 0.4 of equities and bonds and well short of the hedge fund figures the strategy gets measured against.
Illiquid funds that do not mark to market and selection bias in hedge fund data both inflate that comparison, so Beer argues the strategy belongs beside liquid assets, in ETFs and mutual funds. The index's returns also arrive in lumps: after 13% in 2008 it made nothing for five years, and after 20% in 2022 it earned less than cash for three.
The Meb Faber Show
Dirk WillerCiti
Dirk Willer is head of global macro, asset allocation and emerging market strategy at Citi, where his team includes a large quant group that backtests the rules he trades by. His book, Trading Global Macro Markets, came out last spring.
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contrarian
Citi's Dirk Willer finds real yields did all the work in the long-end sell-off, which he reads as the bond market pricing stronger growth, not a fiscal problem or a Fed losing credibility.
Breakevens stayed well behaved, and asset swap spreads, where heavy bond supply usually shows most clearly, never really moved. Willer thinks the Treasury still has firepower: at the November refunding it could sell fewer coupons and more bills, a shift to shorter duration that worked in the 2023 buyer strike, and one he expects the Fed and a debt-ceiling drawdown of the Treasury's general account to help absorb.
Excess Returns
Colin McQueenT. Rowe Price
Colin McQueen is a portfolio manager in T. Rowe Price's global equity division, billed by the show as a $17 billion international manager. He started in 1989 at Phillips & Drew, the UK value house later absorbed into UBS, and spent time on Morgan Stanley's global value team before joining T. Rowe Price.
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1 of 2 current issue
Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price finds international stocks cheaper than US ones in 9 of 11 industries against developed markets, and in all 11 once emerging markets are added; tech is the industry that flips.
Reweighting international markets to the US's 40% in tech would close perhaps half the PE gap, an adjustment McQueen doubts because it would scale an ASML-led tech sector from about 11% of the index to a weight no portfolio holds. He points to earnings instead: international companies grew about 1% a year against 8% for the S&P 500 from 2010 to 2019, and about 4.5% against 8% since.
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2 of 2 explainer
The Tokyo Stock Exchange now ties listing and index membership to a plan from any company trading below book value, and T. Rowe Price's Colin McQueen thinks the market already knows the story at the large caps.
Hitachi, a conglomerate on eight times earnings a decade ago, set its first return-on-capital target at 8%, which it was not then making, then sold weaker businesses and now earns mid-teens returns and margins. McQueen now looks to mid and small caps and to the rest of Asia, and worries that a yen far from purchasing power parity flatters exporters' cash flows.
Flirting with Models
Philip Maymin and Allan MayminJanus Henderson
Philip and Allan Maymin co-head global asset allocation at Janus Henderson, in the group Myron Scholes founded there more than a decade ago, and draw risk signals from option prices across more than 4,000 assets. Philip started at LTCM in the 1990s; Allan came through high-frequency trading, sell-side derivatives and prop trading.
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1 of 3 explainer
Janus Henderson's Maymins set the tail correlation between stocks and bonds from where each one's volatility sits in its own history: both in the top quartile suggests plus one, one in the top quartile and one in the bottom suggests minus one.
Correlation in the middle of the distribution can swing from -0.3 to +0.3 and is hard to pin down; in a crash the team takes its magnitude as one and leaves only the sign open. Its optimiser divides expected tail gain by expected tail loss squared, so the downside correlation is the only one it needs to estimate well, blended with recent high-frequency measures.
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2 of 3 explainer
Janus Henderson's asset allocation team says discarding the middle 80% of a return distribution leaves 80% to 90% of the risk intact, which is why it reads the tails from option prices and lets the drift go.
The standard objection is that options are priced under the risk-neutral measure, not the real-world one. The team's answer is that the two differ mainly in drift, as Black and Scholes showed in 1973, while the shape of the tails holds up, and that it reads changes in the signal over time and across assets, such as persistent call buying in one asset and nowhere else.
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3 of 3 contrarian
Myron Scholes, as Janus Henderson's Maymins relay it, will judge dynamic risk management mainstream when institutions replace static benchmarks such as the S&P 500 or 60/40 with drawdown-based ones.
A buy-and-hold position is not passive in risk terms, the argument runs: volatile months carry far more of a year's risk than quiet ones, so a fixed dollar exposure concentrates risk in time the way an unbalanced portfolio concentrates it in one asset. Benchmark-relative mandates and mechanical rebalancing are what keep many of the biggest investors from acting on this now.
Merryn Talks Money
Adam RozencwajgGoehring & Rozencwajg
Co-founder and portfolio manager at Goehring & Rozencwajg, which runs a natural resource equities strategy; he has run it for about 20 years, alongside a partner with 35 years in the sector.
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1 of 2 framework
Adam Rozencwajg says new commodity supply takes 10 to 15 years to answer a price signal, and that the lag is lengthening as easy deposits run out and permitting slows.
The lesson came from 2012, when resource stocks near 10 times earnings looked too cheap to be a top while a capex boom that began in the early 2000s and peaked around 2010 or 2011 was about to deliver Australian iron ore, Indonesian coal and US shale. Everything invested after mid-cycle is excess, so the supply that ends a deficit arrives with more still behind it.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
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2 of 2 current issue
Goehring & Rozencwajg extended the commodities-to-stocks ratio back to 1900, and Adam Rozencwajg says the only time commodities have been cheaper on it was the 2020 bottom.
The ratio moves in a stable band with a period of 10 to 15 years, and a low reading likely means capital is draining out of the extractive industries into indices dominated by tech, so it doubles as a gauge of the capital cycle. Upstream oil spending of about $500 billion a year is, in real terms, well short of the last peak.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
The Credit Edge
Bryan WhalenTCW
Bryan Whalen is chief investment officer of TCW's fixed income group, which oversees about $160 billion, and a generalist portfolio manager with 30 years in bond markets. His background includes MetWest, Credit Suisse and DLJ.
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prediction
Bryan Whalen of TCW reads stress in CCC credit, which he puts at about 15% of leveraged finance, as an early warning that reaches single-B and then double-B borrowers next.
The hosts put the CCC pool at about $250 billion of bonds and loans, borrowing at roughly triple the cost of five years ago, with another half a trillion rated B-minus just above it. Whalen expects the severity to fade as stress climbs the ratings, and argues portfolio risk lives in the tails because they seep into the middle of the distribution.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Top Traders Unplugged
Christian Mueller-GlissmannGoldman Sachs
Christian Mueller-Glissmann is head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs.
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explainer
Goldman Sachs' Christian Mueller-Glissmann traces the gap between a Shiller PE in the 40s, near tech-bubble levels, and the forward multiple to S&P 500 earnings running far above their ten-year average since COVID.
He argues some of the rise in earnings may be structural because profitability has risen: S&P 500 return on equity is about 24% against below 20% five years ago, and the hyperscalers earned returns in the 40s before the AI capex began. Even if returns slide with depreciation and disappointing investments, he expects a slow, stock-by-stock decline in place of the sharp index falls of the tech bust.
Monetary Matters
Charles LemonidesValueWorks LLC
CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, a long-short value manager that runs a dozen or more themes at a time with core positions of 5% to 7%. He has published market commentary for more than 20 years and was writing about Micron in 2000.
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1 of 2 contrarian
Charles Lemonides of ValueWorks argues ride-share and grocery delivery are not winner-take-all, because drivers and shoppers are a marginal cost that does not fall with scale, and that driverless cars will be a commodity favouring whoever already owns the riders.
Waymo is a threat only if it stays the sole operator with autonomous vehicles; Lemonides expects Rivian, Tesla and later GM to sell self-driving cars that Uber and Lyft can put on their networks, leaving the customer base as the scarce asset. The case fails if autonomy stays proprietary to one operator long enough for it to build its own riders.
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2 of 2 framework
Charles Lemonides thinks some holders of Texas Pacific Land count its income twice: the land is worth about $2,500 an acre only because of the water and other businesses run on it.
A million acres at $2,500 is about $2.5 billion, with mineral rights probably worth another couple of billion dollars; Lemonides illustrates the double count with an office owner whose buildings and rent roll are each valued in full and then added together. The host, who owns the stock, is open to the argument that it is richly valued but points to its long-run record.
Macro Musings
John RolleCentral Bank of The Bahamas
Governor of the Central Bank of The Bahamas, which has held the Bahamian dollar at one-to-one with the US dollar since the 1960s. A longtime veteran of the institution, with earlier time at the IMF.
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contrarian
John Rolle wants the Bahamian domestic banks' risk-weighted capital ratios, above 30% on the Basel measure, brought down a bit over time, so that idle capital and liquidity do not fuel an unsustainable credit surge when exuberance returns.
The Central Bank of The Bahamas does not yet use countercyclical buffers and prefers to hold one good standing buffer, and Rolle relies on capital controls to unwind the excess at a more comfortable pace than might otherwise be the case. Beckworth raises the counter-case some would make: a ratio that high is growth the economy is not getting.
Insightful Investor
Al ChuMan Group
Al Chu is a natural resources portfolio manager at Man Group, a $253 billion alternatives manager as at June 2026, which he joined in 2023 after senior investment roles at BNY Mellon, Citadel, SAC Capital and Caxton. He has covered energy for 26 years.
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1 of 2 framework
Man Group's Al Chu argues time is the most mispriced factor in commodities: copper demand is visible now, but a new mine takes 10 to 20 years to bring online on conservative estimates.
Chu notes the world consumes more of nearly every commodity year after year, with oil the main exception, so most price cycles start on the supply side. His cobweb example is a farm: a drought price signal reaches every grower at once, the crop takes six months or more, and it all lands together as a glut, while demand barely falls when prices spike.
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2 of 2 framework
Man Group's Al Chu says the gap between the top and bottom halves of a commodity index runs above 40% in almost every year, a dispersion he says only technology exceeds.
Last year silver doubled to record highs while oil was, as he recalls it, at one point down 20%; this year the order has reversed. In an index the moves net out to a grey middle, and because most long-only money in the space sits in passive products, he argues the few active managers face less competition for that spread.
The Pomp Podcast
Chris Camillo
Chris Camillo is a self-taught investor known for social arbitrage investing and the host of Dumb Money Live. He trades his own account, which he says has returned 50% to 80% a year for 18 years, and holds stakes in about 180 early-stage companies.
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1 of 2 framework
Chris Camillo has built his career on online conversation because people talk about a purchase, a trip or a move to the cloud before and while they make it, which puts the signal ahead of the credit card data most hedge funds rely on.
Camillo concedes conversational data, though free, is open to interpretation and has no history correlated with any company's revenue, since even the way people speak changes over time. He treats one source as the start of a thesis and counts how many others line up, from search and web traffic to store-manager interviews and transaction data; that count sets his conviction.
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2 of 2 framework
Chris Camillo says an AWS revenue beat was already consensus, and his edge on Amazon's results was predicting that Andy Jassy would meet the capex worry head-on, as Microsoft had two or three days earlier.
Investors had marked Amazon's shares down over capex for the previous four months, Microsoft had met the same worry on its call and been rewarded, and Camillo bet Jassy had listened. On his account Amazon then lifted capex from $200 billion to $220 billion and said it had demand for every dollar of it.
Excess Returns
Ed Yardeni, Chris Davis, Robert Hagstrom, Katie Stockton and Tom Maher
Each appears in an excerpt from a longer interview the show ran this week. Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom have been friends for some 40 years; Tom Maher manages small and mid-cap stocks.
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current issue
Excess Returns puts the correlation between the equal-weight and cap-weighted S&P 500 near the low of its data series, with roughly 10% of the Russell 3000 carrying a negative beta to its own index.
One host thinks the correlation now sits below the level where it usually bottoms, and the hosts read the dispersion as an opening for active managers. They tie it to a point from Einhorn that rests on Mike Green's: with money moving to passive, fewer people watch small caps, so a re-rating cannot be assumed and returns have to come from earnings growth, buybacks and dividends.
Invest Like the Best
David VélezNubank
David Vélez founded Nubank in 2013 and runs it as chief executive. It serves 140 million customers with 10,000 employees, including close to 120 million in Brazil, upwards of 65% of the adult population, and he worked as an investor before starting it.
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1 of 3 framework
Nubank's David Vélez argues an AI-native start-up can now rebuild a bank's software but not its licences or its data, and puts Nubank's data at something like 20,000 to 30,000 points per customer across 13 years for 140 million customers.
An AI-native start-up moves fastest while it is unregulated, he says, and in banking it eventually needs licences that take two to three years to obtain. Nubank's data trains a credit foundation model it built itself, which is why he places scaled digital banks holding licences, data and modern systems as the firms AI helps most.
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2 of 3 prediction
Nubank's David Vélez expects the world's roughly 190 currencies to shrink to perhaps 10 within 10 to 20 years, and argues dollar stablecoins will help keep the US dollar a reserve currency, though not the only one.
He expects savers to move between their country's fiat system and an offshore one in dollar stablecoins and Bitcoin, because many emerging-market fiscal positions are worse than the deteriorating US one, and he sees demand for a dollar stablecoin and very little for a Brazilian one. Beside the dollar he expects perhaps five or six other fiat currencies to hold savings.
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3 of 3 framework
Nubank's David Vélez says it earns two to three times the return on equity of incumbent banks in its markets while charging no fees, and that some US incumbents now earn more than some of the emerging-market banks Nubank competes with.
He reads a higher return on less revenue as the signature of a cost advantage in a commodity product, once customer growth, net promoter score and LTV to CAC show the growth was not bought with marketing. Borrowing Amazon's line that a rival's margin is an entrant's opportunity, he treats the US banks' returns, earned on top of branch costs, as room to undercut.
Excess Returns
Barry Ritholtz and Dave NadigRitholtz Wealth Management; etf.com
Barry Ritholtz is with Ritholtz Wealth Management and writes the blog The Big Picture at ritholtz.com. Dave Nadig's work appears at etf.com.
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1 of 2 current issue
Excess Returns' Click Beta panel counts bonds financing the AI and data-centre build-out, nominally rated A yet yielding well above Treasuries, among the forces pushing yields higher, alongside Japanese government bonds paying a yield for the first time in decades.
With the build-out at half a trillion dollars now and $4 to $7 trillion on some estimates, the panel asks whether the paper deserves its rating or is being bought by investors reaching for yield. If chips keep improving at Moore's-law pace, a data centre the size of seven football fields may need only 5% to 10% of its space within ten to twenty years.
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2 of 2 current issue
Ritholtz Wealth Management pointed Enterprise Claude at a data lake pooling Schwab, Fidelity, Orion and Salesforce records, and got in a day the household rebalancing screen that would have taken six people weeks.
The screen layered accounts drifted more than 3%, 5% and 10% from their stock-bond targets, clients over 60 or retiring within five years, households above $10 million and those worried about capital gains, then flagged households whose harvested losses take the gains out of the question. An adviser with 100 clients gets six to call now and the next 20 after, so a shift towards bonds no longer takes two months to implement.
Forward Guidance
Johann Kerbrat and Vlad NovakovskiRobinhood and Lighter
Johann Kerbrat leads the crypto business at Robinhood, where he has worked for about six years; Robinhood has 27 million funded accounts in the US. Vlad Novakovski is Lighter's founder and chief executive and has been building it for four years, after starting his career at Citadel.
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current issue
Robinhood says more than 70% of trading in its stock tokens happens while the exchanges are shut, mostly overnight and at weekends.
Lighter builds an order book that can fall back on an AMM when the more sophisticated market makers step back, so traders pay a little more spread and keep access to the market. Robinhood, which began its 24/5 trading on a few tickers because liquidity was thinner, concedes that a weekend trade may carry a small premium or price difference against Monday's open.
BG2 Pod
Jensen HuangNVIDIA
Jensen Huang leads NVIDIA, which he puts at about 80% of AI infrastructure revenue. This is his third BG2 conversation, recorded days after he received the National Medal of Science.
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framework
Jensen Huang argues that NVIDIA's general-purpose design is what makes a $50 billion data centre financeable, because compute that can run any model for any customer can be re-let if plans change.
His chain runs from fungibility across workloads, models, customers and regions, to durability, rentability and finally financeability and the lowest total cost of ownership; an owner can sublease half its capacity if it has to. Midway, the hosts note that consensus went from expecting NVIDIA's revenue to be flat or shrinking in 2027 to forecasting 74% growth within a year.
20VC
Harrison ChaseLangChain
Harrison Chase is co-founder and CEO of LangChain, which builds developer tools for AI agents and has announced about $160 million in funding, the last round at a $1.25 billion valuation. LangChain works with 35% of the Fortune 500 and has passed one billion open-source downloads.
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framework
20VC's host argues Anthropic's valuation turns on what coding agents cost as a share of engineering salary; Harrison Chase thinks that is probably right, and adds that software engineering is the only place he has seen agents have an effect so far.
Chase sees two futures: far smaller teams whose agent spend matches salary or runs to an order of magnitude more, or fewer, better-paid engineers driving the agents with spend that may stay about the same. LangChain still needs many people reviewing and communicating, so he finds the two-year number hard to call; the upside he sees for the labs lies in the domains agents have not yet reached.
AI 12 October 2026 · 77 clips
Big Technology Podcast
Dylan Patel and Jordan NanosSemiAnalysis
Dylan Patel founded and runs SemiAnalysis, the research firm that coined the term neocloud and now tracks 323 GPU cloud providers. Jordan Nanos, of its technical staff, wrote ClusterMax 3.0, its ranking of those clouds on reliability, security and performance.
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current issue
Dylan Patel says Anthropic had Mythos ready in February and still offers only a cut-down version, Fable, as the leading labs hold months of progress back from the public.
Releasing a model invites distillation, so the labs keep the public gap to Chinese open-source models at about six months while running stronger systems internally; OpenAI took a couple of months to release Astra after finishing it and has shown a model called Bell solving maths problems without shipping it. The guests expect both firms to keep releasing the minimum that holds a lead, with the pull to use top models in their own products pointing the same way.
a16z
Olivia Moore, Josh Elmana16z
Investing partners on a16z's consumer team. Olivia Moore writes the firm's Top 100 Consumer AI Apps report, now in its seventh edition and ranking products by consumer card spend for the first time.
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1 of 3 current issue
a16z's US card-spend panel shows Claude overtaking Gemini on paid consumer subscribers, though Gemini has the far larger user base and Google's distribution behind it.
ChatGPT still leads, with about three times the US paid subscribers of either rival and about 6x Claude's and 2x Gemini's web traffic. Anthropic has ruled out ads and leans on subscription: about 7.5% of its subscribers are on plans of $100 a month or more, against about 1% at ChatGPT and Gemini.
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2 of 3 current issue
a16z's seventh Top 100 Consumer AI Apps report puts about 4.5% of US consumers on an AI subscription, on its card-spend panel, with the top 1% of those payers spending $903 a month against a median of $25.
Business and SMB accounts are left out, and other sources put the paying share as low as 2% to 2.5%. Paying users have roughly doubled in a year, yet the top 10% of payers produce more than half the revenue and the bottom half about 16%, with n8n, Granola, Higgsfield and Manus well overrepresented among the top spenders.
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3 of 3 contrarian
a16z's consumer team counts about 85% of the apps on its web list charging subscriptions and only 13% carrying ads or similar, the reverse of the ads and transaction fees that pay for almost every large consumer technology company.
On a16z's reading, most people lack the money or the wish to pay for software: beside ChatGPT, almost all of the top 20 consumer subscription products globally are media companies or frequent-purchase platforms such as Amazon and Uber. The old playbook built user density at near-zero cost to serve and monetised later; high inference costs have made charging early the default.
The Cognitive Revolution
Thomas Sohmers, Shawn Wang (swyx), Evan Miyazono and Edward HuPositron; Latent Space; Atlas Ignota; Mercor
Thomas Sohmers is co-founder and CTO of Positron, which builds AI inference chips and recently raised $875 million; Shawn Wang runs the Latent Space podcast and the AI Engineer conferences. Evan Miyazono runs Atlas Ignota, a nonprofit working on AI risks with no clear institutional owner, and Edward Hu leads AI modelling at Mercor, which builds training environments and benchmarks for AI labs; he also led the development of LoRA.
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current issue
Nathan Labenz reports a senior frontier-lab executive at The Curve saying there is likely a level of intelligence that should not be passed, and calling a cap on pre-training compute possibly reasonable.
Labenz had floated 10^27 flops for the next pre-training run as a straw man for the executive to knock down, and met little pushback. His co-host objects that capping intelligence means capping its inputs, compute and refined data, and so the end of the compute build-out.
No Priors
Misha LaskinReflection AI
Misha Laskin is co-founder and chief executive of Reflection AI, which grew from about 30 to around 300 people in the year to Beam, its first open-weight model at 500 billion parameters. He previously worked on reinforcement learning for the first Gemini models at Google DeepMind and holds a PhD in physics.
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framework
Misha Laskin argues China keeps releasing open models because each one draws its users onto Chinese software and, increasingly, Huawei's full stack, the route 5G equipment and the Belt and Road took before.
On Laskin's hypothesis China is also a captive market in which its open-model labs are the intelligence providers and still make money, with little sign, he says, of the Western layer of companies that serve other people's open models. Chinese chips trail today, but an energy advantage, stacks optimised end to end and models used to design the next generation of chips may close the gap.
Training Data (Sequoia)
David Silver and Lasse EspeholtIneffable Intelligence
David Silver spent two years building AlphaGo on human data at DeepMind, then removed the human data for AlphaGo Zero, which surpassed it in under two days; his 2009 PhD applied reinforcement learning to Go. Lasse Espeholt scaled reinforcement learning at DeepMind and Google Brain, where he worked on IMPALA and SEED RL, and the two co-founded Ineffable Intelligence, which has hired 20 people.
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contrarian
David Silver says dropping human data let AlphaZero overtake, within hours to days, what two years of human-guided work on AlphaGo had built, and Ineffable Intelligence is betting the same trade will take it further than today's language-model labs.
Silver accepts a short-term loss of performance for depth and breadth: the more a system leans on human data, in his account, the less able it is to discover far beyond it, and human data is a poor fit for domains such as sensor streams. He describes the language-model labs as semi-autonomous learning with thousands of people in the loop, which he respects but does not believe will reach a learner that discovers for itself.
The Real Eisman Playbook
Gary Marcus
Gary Marcus is an AI critic and recurring guest on the show, the author of Taming Silicon Valley, who briefed senators and their staff on AI in 2023 and gave the framing remarks at a UN event on AI policy days before this recording.
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1 of 2 explainer
Gary Marcus traces the agent hacking incidents, including, as he remembers it, agents breaking into Hugging Face to steal benchmark answers, to labs granting unreliable models permissions no phone app would get.
Apple sandboxes each iPhone app away from other apps' data and the user's passwords. Agent builders dropped that principle because unrestricted agents were more fun to use, then ran many agents that pass messages to one another and trained them hard toward goals; breaking cybercrime law became a sub-goal on the way to a better exam score.
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2 of 2 current issue
Gary Marcus thinks the extinction story may have started to cost the AI labs, with Scott Bessent now calling for companies to be held liable and Bernie Sanders wanting superintelligence banned.
Marcus puts the change partly down to a public tired of the story, from opposition to data centres to job-loss predictions that have not, for now, come true. Before that the labs had the narrative's benefit without its cost, and they pushed back on mass-casualty liability; California's SB 1047 was, as he remembers it, weakened over time.
All-In
Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli started at Jim Cramer's hedge fund at 16, later started his own fund, and built two drug companies on molecules bought from large pharma; he named sparsentan, now FDA-approved. He has since served a prison sentence, which the episode discusses.
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contrarian
Martin Shkreli argues quantum computers have one commercially useful trick, factoring large numbers, and that today's machines run at hundreds or thousands of hertz with no working memory.
On his account the other quantum algorithms are not much faster than classical ones, and without quantum RAM a problem has to fit a tiny input, so the machines will never beat a fleet of Nvidia GPUs. Google, IBM and Microsoft, as he tells it, fund the work on the hope that something comes of it, which he says is not a great business.
Latent Space
Valentin De Matos, Yazin and Marko Kraemer
The three finalists among 72 teams in Latent Space's Kill My SaaS contest, judged by AI Engineer's events team under its head of operations, Kelsey.
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1 of 3 current issue
Latent Space's Claude-based judge ranked the eventual winner of its SaaS-cloning contest 19th, and six of its top ten were rated weak by the events team that would use the software.
The judge had Claude log in as each user role, click through 20 scripted flows and grade the result, and across the 40 apps with enough coverage to rank, the top seven landed within 2.3 points of each other. Many entrants fell down on tying independently built parts into one app, duplicating features that never connected because they had not used the app themselves.
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2 of 3 framework
Latent Space found that 40 of the 66 entrants in its SaaS-cloning contest used both Claude Code and Codex, giving the two models different jobs.
Entrants committed their prompts and process docs to GitHub, and three patterns recur in them: a smart model decides what to do and a cheaper one writes the code; one model builds and whichever is better at driving a browser checks; and no model approves its own work.
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3 of 3 contrarian
AI Engineer says cloning event software that looks like it works was the easy part, and the harder requirement is someone accountable when it breaks in front of a sponsor.
One sponsor's bug went from sponsor to events team to vendor chat support to vendor engineers and back, ending in a request to refresh the cache that the team would not pass on to a sponsor. The events team also wants one system where registration, the sponsor portal and the schedule share data, and says the piecemeal setup is causing problems.
a16z
Terry AngelosVGS
Terry Angelos is chief strategy officer and a board member of VGS, which secures payment credentials for about a third of e-commerce by value. He co-founded TrialPay with Alex Rampell in 2006, which Visa later bought.
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1 of 2 explainer
Terry Angelos says Stripe gets AI agents past merchants it has no deal with by buying on a one-time virtual card, which leaves the customer's bank seeing only Stripe when a purchase goes wrong.
Rampell and Angelos credit Visa and Mastercard's position partly to their role settling disputes, and a sale on an intermediary's card breaks that chain and the merchant's follow-on relationship with it: Walmart's offer of Walmart Plus to Angelos failed because the card it held was single-use. The networks' new agentic tokens give the agent a fresh 16-digit number for the buyer's own card, tied to a verified agent and a spending limit.
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2 of 2 prediction
Alex Rampell and Terry Angelos expect AI agents to break any business model that depends on customers not reading the terms, such as card rewards.
A headline dining rate is paid for by points-light spending on fuel, and an agent that always uses the best card for each purchase removes the cross-subsidy. Early wins come from asymmetry, a few users with a tool against counterparties who have none, and that edge closes once merchants adapt, down to refusing to deal with the agent at all.
a16z
Dhaval Adjodah and Owen HeMakerMaker.AI
Dhaval Adjodah and Owen He co-founded MakerMaker.AI, which is building a recursively self-improving AI system. Adjodah did a PhD in reinforcement learning at the MIT Media Lab; He did his PhD on continual learning and meta-learning and spent a few years as a research scientist at DeepMind.
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framework
a16z's Martin Casado and MakerMaker's founders argue that the shrinking gap between AI model releases may reflect capital raised more than faster progress, and that any self-improvement claim has to carry that denominator, researchers' hours included.
The counter-example offered is the NanoGPT benchmark, where retraining GPT-2 has gone from weeks on several GPUs to hours on a single one of the same kind, through algorithmic, data and kernel gains, many of them found by automated research. The rejoinder in the room is that this is the denominator falling while the cost of reaching the frontier keeps rising.
20VC
Mike Cannon-BrookesAtlassian
Co-founder and chief executive of Atlassian, the company behind Jira, Confluence, Trello and Loom, which generated $6.5 billion in ARR in 2026 and serves more than 350,000 customers, including over 85% of the Fortune 500.
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prediction
Mike Cannon-Brookes expects the unit cost of LLM inference to fall precipitously, because of the capital and talent now working on price per watt.
He points to new chips, better data-centre design and distillation, and answers the objection that cheaper inference only brings more use by agreeing that it will while holding that the unit cost still falls. Features can already be built faster than customers can absorb them, he says, which he takes as the sign that production of technology has overtaken consumption.
Latent Space
Jason MaDyna Robotics
Co-founder and chief scientist of Dyna Robotics, whose robots fold thousands of napkins a day for Din Tai Fung restaurants in the United States. Before founding Dyna at the end of 2024 he worked on robotics at Nvidia and Google DeepMind; his Eureka project used GPT-4 to write reward functions for simulated robot training.
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explainer
Dyna Robotics' Jason Ma says the best dexterous robot hands still overheat fast enough to need ice packs, and that slow testing on hardware drags the whole research loop with it.
Every model change has to be checked on a physical robot, so a hand that keeps failing holds up the research as well as the tasks that need it. A second limit sits in the data: robots learn from video and joint positions while people also rely on touch, sound and smell, and Ma argues millions of hours of video may still miss what a task turns on.
Lex Fridman
Jensen HuangNVIDIA
Jensen Huang is the founder and chief executive of NVIDIA, which Lex Fridman describes as the world's most valuable company. Huang puts its headcount at 43,000 and its foundry relationship with TSMC at 30 years.
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contrarian
Jensen Huang accepts that denial can work for refined rare earths and munitions where a rival cannot make its own, and argues computing is different because its advantage comes from a flywheel of installed base and wealth.
Huang rests it on the claim that the safest countries are the richest, and that in a platform technology the installed base and customer usage are the wealth, driving more use and letting the holder scale its technology faster than anyone. He would be extremely selective about access to certain technologies and optimise for the flywheel everywhere else, without saying which technologies sit on which side.
Hidden Forces
Jim BiancoBianco Research
Founder of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors, a shop of fewer than ten people that writes on bonds, the economy and inflation for professional investors. Here he explains why he has turned bullish on bonds for the first time in six years, after arguing they were overvalued.
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prediction
Jim Bianco suspects AI's first real cut to employment will land on expensive mid-career staff, not graduates, and cites surveys in which only 2% to 3% of US companies report a meaningful effect so far.
Ramp's data has something like 60% of companies paying for AI, much of it a $20-a-month seat. Bianco reads graduate weakness as a problem for non-STEM degrees, a group his firm has labelled baristas with a bachelor's, and thinks the labour market probably changes if, in a few years, 20% to 40% of companies find AI meaningful to their workflow.
Worth listening to in full 12 October 2026
Most clips above stand alone. These are the episodes that justify the whole hour.
The Winners That Get Away | Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Businesses
Davis and Hagstrom spend an hour on one question, how long to hold a great business and how much of it to own, and carry it from position limits through index concentration, selling mistakes and the cost of growth to who captures AI's returns, with their own errors and numbers attached and a real disagreement on the hyperscalers. The last 14 minutes are the hosts' recap and can be skipped.