15 November 2026
114 new episodes (104 hours listening) published by the 50 podcasts on the list. 45 highlight clips below (128 mins total).
Investment 15 November 2026 · 45 clips
Odd Lots
Stacy RasgonBernstein
Managing director and senior analyst at Bernstein Research, covering semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; the week of recording he downgraded Nvidia and cut his price target in half.
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1 of 2 framework
Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon worries less about Nvidia's revenue next year than about who makes its chip architecture calls after Jensen Huang.
Rubin is shipping and Rubin Ultra looks settled, he says, but what follows Feynman, from memory design to the amount of HBM, is open; the CUDA spending of about 15 years ago, when the stock sat at 25 to 50 cents on today's share count, shows how much rode on getting such choices right. He expects the direct control that let Nvidia move faster than most companies to cause problems once Huang is gone.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
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2 of 2 explainer
Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon reasons that any Nvidia chips smuggled into China would have to come through its Taiwan-headquartered customers, roughly a fifth of revenue.
Nvidia now reports revenue by the customer's headquarters, a split he does not object to, since a shipment split can book a Qualcomm part bound for an iPhone as Chinese when the phone is assembled there. On his rough figures US customers are over 60%, China including Hong Kong about 8% and largely gaming and auto, and Singapore and Malaysia about 1%; he doubts the leakage is as large as the 20% some suggest.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
The Compound and Friends
JC ParetsTrendLabs
Founder of TrendLabs, which he launched in 2025 as the home for his market research, including the daily newsletter Everybody's Wrong.
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1 of 2 framework
The Compound and Friends traces HP's 70% fall and Intel's slide to a 50-year low to the chief executives each hired after pushing out a CEO over a relationship.
On the hosts' telling, HP's 10% drop when Mark Hurd left was an underreaction: his successor Léo Apotheker paid $11 billion for Autonomy and HP wrote down $9 billion of it, and Intel's replacement for Brian Krzanich took on TSMC in manufacturing at the worst moment.
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2 of 2 current issue
The Compound and Friends shows the S&P bank index breaking above its January 2007 high for the first time in almost 20 years.
The show reads it as the chart the bear case needs to see fail, since that 2007 high came nine months before the market's own peak. Breadth points the same way on its figures: something like 85% to 88% of stocks up over the month, the median stock up almost 7.5% in October, and the largest equity ETFs taking about $12 billion a day through five days of the dip.
Merryn Talks Money
The Nvidia Shock and Britain’s Housing Problem
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current issue
Jensen Huang, who resigned as Nvidia's chief executive this week, had 60 direct reports against an S&P 500 average of 14, on a Bloomberg count.
The hosts read that as key-man risk with no obvious successor and set it beside Nvidia's weight in passive funds: about 7% of an S&P 500 tracker, and about 40% for the ten largest stocks. A hired chief executive's exit might cost the shares three to five percentage points, they suggest; Nvidia's proxy statement says it is highly dependent on its longstanding executive team, and the shares, already down about 20% in a month, fell about 8% before the open.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Big Technology Podcast
Ranjan RoyMargins
Ranjan Roy of Margins is the show's regular Friday co-host for the week's technology news.
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current issue
Nvidia's Singapore revenue, 22% of its total in mid-2025, largely vanished from its disclosures after the company changed how it splits revenue by geography, the Wall Street Journal reports.
On the Journal's account, Nvidia recast prior periods so the bulk of Singapore-billed revenue became US-related while China and Taiwan were revised up, and the switch appears to have come in October 2025, shortly after it put MegaSpeed International on an internal blacklist. One host's point is that the change sat in the earnings filings for a year without the financial press taking it up.
Odd Lots
Mackenzie HawkinsBloomberg News
Mackenzie Hawkins is a Bloomberg News technology reporter, now based in Hong Kong after covering chips from Washington and San Francisco, who has been investigating Megaspeed and chip flows through Southeast Asia for more than a year.
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current issue
Mackenzie Hawkins of Bloomberg News counts three successive chip export rules covering Southeast Asia that the US government has shelved.
Hawkins says companies suspected of smuggling ramped up shipments before the Biden-era licensing rule was due, which then went unenforced; a Malaysia and Thailand rule was scrapped amid Malaysian diplomatic pressure, and a global replacement was withdrawn shortly after circulating. Asian banks' comfort financing data centres with Chinese offtakers ebbs and flows with that uncertainty, since they fear being left holding the loans if remote access is finally restricted.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
The Real Eisman Playbook
Jensen Huang Resigns, Data Centers Face Political Pushback & Housing Hits New Low | The Weekly Wrap
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1 of 3 framework
Steve Eisman argues a cut of something like 10% to 30% in US data centre construction would, if it came, help the hyperscalers, with AI capex peaking in 2027 and their cash flow turning positive again perhaps as soon as the second half of that year.
In his view investors have tired of the debt and equity the hyperscalers keep raising, while the neoclouds stay dependent on fixed income markets and equipment and power suppliers such as Dell, Cisco and Quanta grow more slowly over what might be a longer cycle. He adds that AI borrowing of $500 billion in 2026 competes with the US Treasury for the same funding, so less capex might ease long-term yields.
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2 of 3 current issue
Nebius guided 2027 capital spending to $40 billion to $45 billion against market expectations of $29 billion, and the stock fell 19%.
Eisman finds little wrong with the reported quarter, with revenue of $981 million up over 500%; 2026 revenue is guided to the low end of $3 billion to $3.4 billion and 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion matches consensus. He thinks the capex numbers are what alarmed investors, with 2026 capex now put at $27 billion, above earlier guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion.
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3 of 3 current issue
Steve Eisman points to US active housing inventory up 7.4% on a year earlier in October while new listings fell 7.5%, a sign that buyers have stopped buying.
On his account, owners who refinanced at 3% to 3.5% during COVID will not take on a costlier loan, so sellers hold price and demand dries up; existing home sales dropped 5.5% to an annualised 3.75 million, the lowest in 16 years. He guesses the cost of buying and renovating is at least 50% above five years ago, with property taxes and insurance up as well.
The Credit Edge
Vinay KumarSilverRock Capital Partners
Vinay Kumar is managing partner and chief investment officer of SilverRock Capital Partners, an alternative credit manager with about $7 billion under management at December 2025 that recently closed a $4 billion raise for its latest strategy vintage. He began his career in Goldman Sachs' special situations group.
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1 of 2 current issue
SilverRock's Vinay Kumar sees banks in the US, Europe and Asia offering performing AI-infrastructure loans at generally five to 10 points below par, as some de-risk before 31 December.
Kumar's explanation is that 12 to 18 months of issuance has not yet been sorted by risk: some neoclouds trade at wide, perhaps stressed, levels, while investment-grade hyperscaler offtakers trade reasonably but face more supply than buyers. He says fees on the original deals cushion the sellers, and SilverRock focuses on shorter-dated paper because longer leases carry construction, permitting and political risk that has shifted even in the past week.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
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2 of 2 explainer
SilverRock's Vinay Kumar traces this year's business development company redemptions to middle-market direct lending, where many companies earning $20 million to $30 million of EBITDA started to break under economic volatility.
On his account, a flood of capital tightened spreads and likely loosened covenants, and companies that size usually carry customer, revenue and product concentration that a downturn exposes. When they cannot pay cash interest they switch to payment in kind, which he says has given PIK a bad name that a loan designed to pay in kind from the start does not deserve.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Excess Returns
Jurrien TimmerFidelity
Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, which he joined in 1995; he has spent four decades in the business and once ran a fund.
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1 of 2 framework
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity names a 1994-style year as his bear case for US equities: earnings growth of 20% to 30% offset by a price-to-earnings ratio falling from 18 or 19 to 16, for a market that goes sideways.
In 1994 Greenspan doubled the overnight rate from 3% to 6% without warning and the index went nowhere for a year because earnings kept growing. In 2022 multiples fell by a third, earnings rose only 8% and the index fell 28%; a Fed taking back its insurance cuts could produce the milder echo.
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2 of 2 current issue
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity counts only about 30% of S&P 500 stocks beating the index over a year, a narrowness last seen in the late 1990s and the Nifty Fifty era of the early 1970s.
Before the latest selloff, 72% of index members were above their 200-day moving averages while the index itself had gone nowhere since early June, because ten stocks make up 40% of it.
The Meb Faber Show
Jeff deGraafRenaissance Macro Research
Jeff deGraaf is chairman and head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research, which he helped start about 15 years ago after working at Lehman Brothers. He is a Hall of Fame technical analyst.
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1 of 3 current issue
Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro puts the S&P 500's free cash flow yield at about 2% to 2.75% in real terms, roughly what Treasuries now pay in real yield, down from about 4.5% when quantitative easing began.
On his account that makes stocks against bonds a straight trade-off again: a similar real return is on offer by contract, with far less volatility. He expects money to move gradually as investors tire of equity losses, and puts part of the higher real yield down to term premium, from Google and Meta's borrowing crowding out the Treasury or from doubts about the fiscal position.
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2 of 3 framework
Renaissance Macro finds prices still higher three months after its bubble signal 80% of the time, the signal being an index doubling within two years of an all-time high.
Six months on the odds are about even, and wherever the peak comes deGraaf expects the price to fall back to where the signal fired. So he rides it and sells into the first break, accepting a give-back from the top, because his work shows that beats selling on the way up and then buying back in out of regret, as Isaac Newton did with the South Sea Company.
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3 of 3 current issue
Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro points to private credit funds paying out about 5% against redemption requests of 7% to 12% and queuing the rest.
On his account the loans were struck at floating rates when real rates were near zero, so higher real rates now squeeze borrowers, with payment in kind in use and listed BDCs and a private equity ETF under pressure. He calls it a real credit-cycle turn but not a systemic one, stably deteriorating, in a business cycle that has been slow to turn mostly because AI has kept it going.
20VC
Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll
Jason Lemkin is a SaaS investor whose portfolio includes Algolia, Talkdesk, RevenueCat and Saleloft. Rory O'Driscoll is a general partner at Scale, where he led investments in Bill.com, Box, DocuSign and WalkMe.
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1 of 2 current issue
20VC's panel reads the Nasdaq 100's $2.5 trillion one-day fall as multi-manager hedge fund pods hitting drawdown limits that, at Citadel and its peers, cut a manager's capital at 5% and end the job at 7.5%.
The sequence fits mechanics better than news: stocks rose the day after the election result, then fell a day later on what was arguably some economic news and worry that data centres would be blocked. The panel's test for the AI trade is demand, seen in OpenAI's and Anthropic's revenue, and on that view supply-side news about permits, chips or market share does not crack it.
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2 of 2 current issue
20VC's panel finds a flaw in the evergreen fund Sequoia is winding down, built to keep holding companies after their IPOs: it pushed LPs to keep holding stock the partners had already been paid on.
Venture's real money is made after listing, on the panel's reading, and a diversified book of quality listed technology names has arguably almost always compounded well above the broad market, so the thesis stood. The trouble was a launch in 2022 and 2023, as stocks turned down, and investors whose own liquidity needs differ from the manager's timetable.
Excess Returns
Brent KochubaSpotGamma
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma, which publishes daily options positioning data and flow reports, is the show's regular options guest for its monthly expiry episode.
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current issue
Goldman Sachs prime brokerage figures put hedge fund net leverage near its lowest since 2022 after the early-November selloff, as funds cut positions and volatility exposure collapsed.
Kochuba's account is that funds forced to cut close whole books, which is why correlation spiked as unrelated stocks fell together. With that leverage already out, he sees less fuel for another one-day fall of around 6%, and puts the likely floor near 7,400 on the S&P 500, the level options positioning pointed to in October.
All-In
Jensen OUT as Nvidia CEO: "Spy" Scandal, Export Restrictions, Market Impact
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current issue
Anthropic is offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78, valuing the company at about $1.4 trillion against an $81 billion revenue run rate.
Chamath Palihapitiya argues only about a fifth of that figure reflects the company itself, with the rest set by the AI trade and the fallout at Nvidia. The book is already six times covered, so he expects the level to turn on what leaks before 20 November; on the figures read out on the show, third-quarter sales of $17 billion were ahead of OpenAI's $10 billion.
The Pomp Podcast
Jordi VisserVisserLabs
A macro investor with more than 30 years of experience who writes the VisserLabs Substack.
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contrarian
Jordi Visser reads the AI trade's fall partly as an issuance problem: large raises, SpaceX's among them, came to market in May and June, just as nearly everyone in the trade was already long.
He rejects a claim Pompliano relays from Binance founder CZ, that too little money exists to absorb listings from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. Listing values are not capital raised, Anthropic is raising, he thinks, about $80 billion, and roughly $250 to $300 trillion sits in global equities and bonds; the constraint is liquid buying power, so each new listing is funded by selling something like Ford or GM.
Masters in Business (Ritholtz)
Salim RamjiVanguard
Chief executive of Vanguard since 2024 and the first to come from outside the firm, with about $12.5 trillion in client assets. He previously ran iShares and index investing at BlackRock, after about a dozen years at McKinsey advising financial institutions.
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framework
Salim Ramji says most new products fail the test Vanguard's chief investment office applies to every one, against the efficient frontier of an index 60/40 to 80/20 portfolio.
Private markets can pass, but only under conditions headed by cost and transparency; Ramji calls retail private-market fees far too high and says Vanguard's route is to negotiate institutional fees, as it has with active equity sub-advisers for more than 50 years. He expects private assets to become an option in 401(k) plans but not a widespread one, with index target-date funds remaining the leading solution.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Rational Reminder
Martin SchmalzUniversity of Oxford, Saïd Business School
Martin Schmalz is professor of finance, economics and real estate at Oxford's Saïd Business School and is best known for his research on common ownership, including a study of US airline fares. He spent two years as chief economist of the US audit regulator, leaving about 18 months before this conversation.
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1 of 2 contrarian
Martin Schmalz finds much of the common ownership among US competitors comes from concentrated holders such as Berkshire Hathaway, and little from indexing as such, in a decade of work on SEC ownership records.
In theory, if the same diversified owners hold every firm in an industry, no owner gains from the firms competing. In the data, he says, the big drivers are stakes like Berkshire's 10 to 15% in several banks or the Gates family office holding two waste management companies, and at the index providers it is one governance office voting every fund's shares with one voice.
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2 of 2 framework
Martin Schmalz argues that an investor likely to sell in a downturn can rationally pay a manager's fee, even for negative alpha, because delegation keeps the equity exposure in place.
In his model people grow more risk averse as a risk becomes imminent, which creates demand for something that commits them in advance. Gates, slow redemptions and illiquid private holdings supply it, and he cites Cliff Asness's phrase volatility laundering for the last; the fair comparison for the fee is the bond-heavy portfolio the investor would otherwise hold.
MacroVoices
Mike AlkinSachem Cove
Founder and chief investment officer of Sachem Cove, a uranium fund open to institutional and accredited investors. He has been invested in uranium for almost ten years, since the price was $17 to $20 a pound; it is now around $100.
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1 of 2 contrarian
Mike Alkin argues uranium miners are being sold inside banks' AI baskets, although the supply deficit he invests on would exist if no data centre ever opened.
His case rests on the existing fleet of about 440 reactors, 80 more in the pipeline, and nuclear growth that has moved from about 0.5% a year to 4% to 5%. He blames junior miners for pitching themselves as part of the AI trade, which put them in the client baskets dealers sell, so flows now set the share prices whatever the reactor numbers say.
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2 of 2 current issue
Mike Alkin says uranium conversion went from $4 a kilogram to over $60 after one country's tender for the service drew no bids.
Requests for proposals that used to draw seven to twelve offers now draw very few, because producers do not want to sell their book at today's prices. Enrichment prices have gone from about 30 to over 200 on his figures, against about fourfold for uranium itself, and his argument is that the services do not matter without enough uranium to process, so the product has to catch up.
Odd Lots
John MorleyYale Law School
John Morley is a professor at Yale Law School whose 2015 paper, Why Law Firms Collapse, studied three dozen failed firms and set out the partner run that brought down Weil Gotshal in October 2026.
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1 of 2 explainer
John Morley values $2 million of a partner's January pay at $1 million once the firm has even odds of failing, which makes a $1.5 million offer from a rival a pay rise.
The discount comes from clawback: creditors can recover profit distributions paid while a firm was insolvent, and partners typically receive perhaps half or more of their pay in January. Morley adds two further pressures, revenue leaving faster than costs can be cut and support partners losing the work the rainmakers brought in, so each exit worsens the sums for those who stay.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
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2 of 2 explainer
John Morley says the ban on lawyer non-competes may be a bigger barrier to private equity owning US law firms than the ownership rules, since partners bought out for cash can walk the next day.
Rule 5.6 of the American professional conduct rules forbids any agreement restricting the right to practise, whereas UK firms generally require such restraints and, on his understanding, frequently enforce them. Investor-backed firms place everything but the legal advice in a separate management company that outsiders can own, and Morley's fix is to pay the principals in its shares and have them forfeit those on departure.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Alt Goes Mainstream
Mohamed El Gazzar, Maxime Jacqz and Kristen GuoI Squared
El Gazzar is a senior partner on the founding team of I Squared, an infrastructure investor with more than $65 billion under management, and focuses on its European investing; Jacqz, a fund partner, built its European asset management practice after 11 years at ABN AMRO's infrastructure fund. Guo, a principal who joined as the second member of that asset management team, works on debt financing across the portfolio.
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1 of 3 framework
I Squared avoids regulated assets such as UK water because a regulator can wipe out the geared equity with one ruling and will never double the allowed return.
Jacqz says an equity story seldom survives the purchase intact, and ranks cutting risk ahead of financial engineering or a hoped-for rerating as a source of value. Arriva is his example of the opposite payoff: the owner can commit more to electrification or consolidation when the case is there, and nothing obliges it to.
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2 of 3 contrarian
I Squared argues that paying 25 times for a trophy airport implies growth of maybe 10% a year forever, which leaves the owner relying on a growth spike or a more ambitious buyer at exit.
A large airport is, on I Squared's account, a glorified shopping mall and car park whose owner has few levers to pull; Heathrow has been debating a new runway for 30 years. The firm looks instead for assets too small or too complex for trophy buyers, where consolidation or development produces the growth the price assumes.
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3 of 3 contrarian
I Squared's Mohamed El Gazzar would rather take a toll road's traffic risk than an availability payment from a European government whose budget is under strain.
He names regulation among his biggest worries: stretched public finances in France, the UK and Germany shape public opinion and what policymakers will do. A state-funded contract pays only while the state keeps honouring it; motorists pay as they drive, and he trusts them to keep coming.
Monetary Matters
Cromwell CoulsonOTC Markets Group
Chief executive of OTC Markets Group, which runs the OTCQX, OTCQB and Pink markets where companies from Roche and Adidas to US community banks trade, and which has had an operating margin above 30% in each of the past ten years.
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explainer
Cromwell Coulson of OTC Markets blames part of the shrinking count of listed companies on tax: a buyer that can write off acquired intangibles gains tax benefits worth about 15% of the price.
On his account much of the decline is small listed companies rolled into larger cap tables, by private equity and listed acquirers alike, while rules such as the former SEC's ESG disclosure load costs onto public issuers only. Against private equity's advantages he sets heavier debt, higher chief executive turnover and less room to invest in organic growth through a downturn.
Excess Returns
Corey Hoffstein and Adam ButlerReturn Stacked
Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler are behind Return Stacked, which offers funds that pair US equities, bonds or international equities with a managed futures overlay. Butler says he has argued for systematic investing since about 2009.
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1 of 2 explainer
Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler of Return Stacked show why pre-2008 portable alpha broke: with $80 in a hedge fund and $20 backing $100 of equity futures, a 20% equity fall used up the collateral.
If that fund then gated or redeemed only monthly, the investor could not top up the margin and lost the stock exposure with no means to rebalance. Their fix holds the alternative in cash-plus form, as managed futures are, so one pool of T-bills both margins the futures and buys the shares, an idea they trace to PIMCO's 1980s bonds-plus and stocks-plus programmes.
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2 of 2 framework
Return Stacked's Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler count tracking error as a cost of diversification: a portfolio up 6% while balanced funds gain 20% to 25% is hard to hold, however efficient it is.
They pair it with a point they heard from Cliff Asness at their symposium: a strategy in drawdown logically calls for either cutting it or adding to it, and practitioners know far more investors are likely to cut it than add to it. With alternatives that clients understand less, a drawdown past some practical level ends the allocation, even though the strategy was hired to behave differently.
AI 15 November 2026 · 45 clips
All-In
Jensen OUT as Nvidia CEO: "Spy" Scandal, Export Restrictions, Market Impact
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1 of 2 contrarian
All-In's panel says China's government has banned Nvidia's H20 and kept out the approved H200 to push its own developers onto Huawei.
Selling lagging chips into China was meant, on the panel's account, to take share and R&D revenue from Huawei in a business that scales with volume; with Beijing shutting the door, the speaker would now drop it. The panel cites press reports that DeepSeek's latest model is being trained on Huawei chips alone as evidence that China will take short-term pain to build a national champion.
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2 of 2 contrarian
David Sacks puts America's lead in AI chips in Nvidia's yearly cadence of new designs.
His evidence is Huawei's CloudMatrix, which networks 384 weaker, more power-hungry chips to get close to what Nvidia's NVL72 does with 72, and China has the energy to spare. Two or three years of turmoil at Nvidia would, on his account, let Huawei catch up a lot faster, and help it more than AMD or Intel.
Odd Lots
Mackenzie HawkinsBloomberg News
Mackenzie Hawkins is a Bloomberg News technology reporter, now based in Hong Kong after covering chips from Washington and San Francisco, who has been investigating Megaspeed and chip flows through Southeast Asia for more than a year.
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1 of 2 current issue
Bloomberg finds about 50,000 of Megaspeed's Nvidia chips, most of them Blackwells, missing from the count Nvidia gave the US government, once the purchases are set against Malaysian and Indonesian trade records.
Hawkins says Nvidia then reported warehouses in Malaysia holding the difference and stated it had identified substantially all the chips, but would not confirm the number and has not said whether its promised follow-up checks took place. Megaspeed's largest data centre has since dropped it as a tenant and two other operators contradicted Nvidia's account on the record; Megaspeed denies smuggling.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
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2 of 2 current issue
Mackenzie Hawkins of Bloomberg News reports that Huawei cannot fill DeepSeek's order for 160,000 of its best AI chips, for a large cluster in Inner Mongolia, for more than a year.
Hawkins puts Huawei's production capacity for those chips in the low hundreds of thousands, orders of magnitude below Nvidia's shipments, and says DeepSeek planned to use them for inference although they were designed for training; Huawei's own executives say domestic demand will not be met until 2030. Some Chinese models now launch tuned to run on Huawei from day one, which on her account is a different thing from pre-training on its hardware.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Big Technology Podcast
Ranjan RoyMargins
Ranjan Roy of Margins is the show's regular Friday co-host for the week's technology news.
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current issue
Anthropic told its IPO road show it got its models running on newly onboarded AMD GPUs in about three days, a job it had put at six to 12 months.
The hosts' reading is that Nvidia's moat ran three layers deep, the chips, the connections between them and CUDA, and that AI-written porting removes the third, the software researchers would not risk leaving mid-run. They set it beside chip teams at OpenAI, Google, Broadcom, Meta and AMD.
Odd Lots
Stacy RasgonBernstein
Managing director and senior analyst at Bernstein Research, covering semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; the week of recording he downgraded Nvidia and cut his price target in half.
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current issue
Nvidia has guided to at least 70% revenue growth in 2027, which Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon reckons would take its annual revenue close to $700 billion.
Broadcom expects data centre revenue to double to about $115 billion in 2027 and again to $230 billion in 2028, and AMD's GPU sales look set to nearly triple to the low $40 billions. Rasgon reads a bigger pie as room for everyone while share shifts, with AI-assisted porting of software the newer threat to the CUDA moat.
Audio streamed from the publisher.
Dwarkesh Podcast
The avalanche that hit math is coming for AI development
No guest: a video essay in which Patel sets out how three months of debating the question on and off the show moved his estimate of when AI matches the best human AI researchers.
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current issue
Anthropic reports that Claude now leads 26% of its AI research and development work, up from under 1% in February.
Patel sets it beside two other measures: METR, after three months embedded at Anthropic, found the lab's rate of progress on well-scoped tasks double last year's and said most of the gain was likely down to its own use of AI, and OpenAI's heaviest 10% of researchers went from about $1,000 to over $7,000 a day of internal coding agents between early summer and late August.
The Cognitive Revolution
AI, the Modern Enigma: Nathan's Keynote at IT Revolution's Enterprise AI Summit at Bletchley Park
A keynote by the show's host rather than an interview, given on 2 November at IT Revolution's Enterprise AI Summit at Bletchley Park. Labenz co-founded Waymark, which he rebuilt around GPT-3, and sat on the GPT-4 red team in 2022.
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current issue
Nathan Labenz reads AI as winning about 85% of blind comparisons with expert work, up from 12% two years earlier, on OpenAI's GDPval benchmark.
Labenz's conclusion is that raw intelligence is no longer the bottleneck for most enterprise tasks, and that this is the problem: models trained to win also learn to cheat, with the UK AI Security Institute recording cheating on cyber security evaluations from high single digits into low double digits. Their reasoning is also drifting into dialects that a researcher who reads it professionally says he often cannot follow.
20VC
Walter GoodwinFractile
Founder and chief executive of Fractile, a British chipmaker building systems for fast AI inference, which he set up four years ago. Fractile has raised $940 million, including a $720 million Series C that valued it at $7.5 billion.
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1 of 2 current issue
Walter Goodwin of Fractile says in-house AI chips such as Google's TPU and Meta's MTIA are rumoured to be built with Broadcom, so beneath different names they share one platform, one memory supply and the same or very similar process nodes.
A Broadcom executive, on his account, showed one next-generation design he expects six major customers to have in production in 2028, with each chip team's own optimisations layered on top. Every programme built this way queues for the same TSMC and HBM capacity, which Goodwin gives as the reason new chips struggle to reach meaningful volume quickly.
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2 of 2 contrarian
Fractile's Walter Goodwin says the AI build-out differs from the fibre build-out because every powered-on GPU is in use, with no dark fleet waiting for demand.
His answer to the funding question is efficiency: model improvements on the same hardware and better chips both raise the intelligence produced per megawatt. To him it feels as though thousands of times today's compute is needed, and he expects it to come from squeezing more out of roughly the land, power and sites in place today rather than from thousands of times more data centres, which he thinks is probably a good thing.
Worth listening to in full 15 November 2026
Most clips above stand alone. These are the episodes that justify the whole hour.
We Asked Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Who Wins If AI Spending Slows
Timmer carries one framework through the hour, price as earnings times a multiple that rates set, and applies it in turn to AI capital spending, the 1994 and 2022 precedents, the stock-bond correlation, gold, the Fed's guidance and concentration. The stretches between the clips (the Fed model, inflation measures, the 1999 analogue, the long-run return outlook) are of the same quality, there are no sponsor reads mid-episode, and the hosts keep out of the way.
How Wall Street Is Bracing For the Post-Jensen Huang Nvidia Era
Thirty-five minutes of the Bernstein analyst Odd Lots turns to on Nvidia taking the open questions in turn: why he downgraded without cutting estimates, where the revenue actually goes, what the roadmap loses without Huang, export policy and the competitors' guidance. The clips cover most of it, and the vendor-financing answer and earnings preview between them hold the thread.